RICE: The changes made to the U.S. 2014/15 rice supply and use balances this month are confined to forecast exports, ending stocks, and prices. The 2014/15 all rice export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 104.0 million. Long-grain exports are forecast at 72.0 million, up 1.0 million from last month based on larger expected exports to markets in the Western Hemisphere. The combined medium- and short-grain export projection is unchanged at 32.0 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.9 million cwt, down 1.0 million from a month ago—all in long-grain rice. Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 27.1 million cwt, the largest since 2010/11. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are unchanged at 11.5 million.
The 2014/15 long-grain season-average rice price range is projected at $12.20 to $12.80 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range. The all combined medium- and short-grain season-average price range is forecast at $18.10 to $18.90 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The California medium- and short-grain rice price is increased 30 cents per cwt to $19.80 to $20.80 per cwt. The Other States medium- and short-grain rice price is unchanged at $14.80 to $15.40 per cwt.
Global 2014/15 rice ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons primarily due to increase in consumption. Total supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 37,000 tons as the increase in production is insufficient to offset the decrease in beginning stocks. Global production is increased 300,000 tons based primarily on increases for India ( 500,000) and Sri Lanka ( 150,000), partially offset by a reduction for Thailand (-350,000). The increase in India is based on an expected larger Rabi crop. Sri Lanka rice production is raised because of an expected increase in plantings and yield for the Maha crop. Thailand 2014/15 rice crop is lowered 0.35 million tons to 19.15 million due to a reduction in dry-season plantings resulting from an on-going drought and a reduction in irrigation water availability concentrated in the Central Region. Thailand 2014/15 crop would be the smallest since 2006/07. The reduction in 2014/15 global beginning stocks is due primarily to reductions for Burma and Malaysia. Global rice consumption (includes residual) is raised 0.5 million tons with the largest increases for China and India. Global rice exports are raised 0.4 million tons due mostly to increases for Burma, India, and the United States. Global imports are raised for China, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.