RICE: Slight revisions are made to the U.S. all rice and rice-by-class 2014/15 supply and use balance sheets. All rice imports are increased 1.0 million cwt to 23.0 million, all in combined medium- and short-grain rice. Imports of broken rice from Australia of about 21,000 tons (milled basis) were reported in the U.S. Census Bureau’s December trade data. The all rice export forecast is unchanged at 103.0 million cwt, but the by-class projections are shifted by increasing long-grain 1.0 million to 71.0 million and lowering combined medium- and short-grain 1.0 million to 32.0 million. All rice ending stocks are raised 1.0 million cwt to nearly 42.0 million with long-grain stocks lowered 1.0 million to 28.1 million, and combined medium- and short-grain stocks raised 2.0 million to 11.5 million. Stocks of broken rice, not reported by class, are projected at a little over 2.0 million cwt.
The 2014/15 long-grain season-average price range is narrowed to $11.90 to $12.50 per cwt, up 20 cents on the low end of the range and down 20 cents on the upper end—the midpoint is unchanged from a month ago at $12.20 per cwt. The all combined medium- and short-grain season-average price range is narrowed to $17.90 to $18.70 per cwt, down 10 cents on the low end of the range and a decrease of 30 cents on the high end—the midpoint is lowered 20 cents from last month to $18.30 per cwt. Two additional combined medium- and short-grain farm prices are introduced this month: a California price (on an October-September basis) and a price for Other States (on an August-July basis). The California combined medium- and short-grain price is forecast with a midpoint of $20.00 per cwt, and the midpoint for the Other States is $15.10.
Global 2014/15 rice supply and use projections are lowered from last month. Global 2013/14 rice production is forecast at 474.6 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month. The largest declines for Thailand and Cambodia are partially offset by increases for Sri Lanka and Iraq. Thailand’s 2014/15 rice crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million due to a reduction in dry-season plantings resulting from an on-going drought and a reduction in irrigation water availability concentrated in the Central Region. Thailand’s 2014/15 crop would be the smallest since 2006/07. Cambodia’s crop is lowered 200,000 tons to 4.7 million due mostly to flooding of the main-season crop. Global consumption is down slightly from a month ago. World trade in 2014/15 is lowered 400,000 tons due mostly to reductions for Thailand and Cambodia. Imports are lowered for Iraq. World ending stocks are lowered 0.8 million tons to 98.2 million due mostly to a reduction for Thailand, which is partially offset by increases for Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Thailand’s 2014/15 ending stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons to 9.6 million, the lowest since 2011/12. Pakistan’s 2014/15 ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons owing to a reduction in the 2013/14 export projection.