RICE: The U.S. 2014/15 rice crop is estimated at 221.0 million cwt, down fractionally from the previous estimate. Average yield is estimated at 7,572 pounds per acre, down 25 pounds per acre. Harvested area is estimated at 2.919 million acres, up 9,000 acres from the previous estimate with most of the increase in Arkansas. Long-grain rice production is estimated at 162.4 million cwt, up 2.1 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 2.2 million to 58.7 million. All rice imports for 2014/15 are increased 1.0 million cwt to 22.0 million due primarily to a large shipment of long-grain broken rice from Vietnam reported in the November trade data released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The all rice 2014/15 domestic and residual use projection is unchanged at 131.0 million as implied by the December 1 stocks. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice domestic and residual use are both unchanged from a month ago and projected at 99.0 million and 32.0 million, respectively. The all rice export projection is unchanged at 103.0 million cwt; however, the long-grain export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 70.0 million and the combined medium- and short-grain forecast is lowered to 33.0 million. The boost in the long-grain export projection is due primarily to increased exports of rough rice to Latin America as reported in the November trade data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. The 2014/15 all rice rough export projection is unchanged at 35.0 million cwt and the milled and brown rice component is unchanged at 68.0 million (rough rice equivalent basis). All rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 40.9 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month, and an increase of 28 percent from a year ago. Long-grain rice ending stocks are forecast at 29.1 million cwt, up 2.1 million from last month. Combined medium- and short-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 9.5 million cwt, down 1.2 million from last month.
The 2014/15 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $11.70 to $12.70 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt on each end from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $18.00 to $19.00 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.60 to $14.60 per cwt, down 40 cents per cwt on each end. The decrease in the price projections is due to lower-than-expected prices reported in the December issue of Agricultural Prices released by USDA and price expectations the remainder of the marketing year.
Global 2014/15 rice supply and use is changed very little from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at 475.5 million tons up 0.2 million from last month, but down 1.5 million from the record 2013/14 crop. The increase in the 2014/15 crop is primarily due to an increase for Paraguay which is partially offset by a drop in Brazil. Global consumption for 2014/15 is increased 0.4 million tons to a record 483.3 million tons with small increases distributed among several countries. The export projection for 2014/15 is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 42.6 million due primarily to increases for Burma, Guyana, Paraguay, and Thailand. Imports are raised for Bolivia, Haiti, Syria, and the United States. Global rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.0 million tons, down 0.1 million from last month, and a decrease of 7.9 million from the prior year. Ending stocks projections are lowered for Brazil and Thailand, but increased for Bangladesh and the United States.