WASDE: Corn Crop Forecast to be 14.407 Billion Bushels

05:17PM Nov 10, 2014
usda corn field sunset
( )

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain production for 2014/15 is lowered this month as lower corn, barley, and oats output more than offsets a small increase for sorghum.  Corn production is forecast 68 million bushels lower, but still a record at 14,407 million bushels.  The national average corn yield is reduced 0.8 bushels per acre to 173.4 bushels.  Small decreases in barley and oats production reflect the resurvey of producers who reported unharvested acreage in early September for the Small Grains report.  Sorghum production is raised 4 million bushels with a higher forecast yield. 

U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is projected slightly higher with a 5-million-bushel increase in expected food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use.  Corn used in ethanol production is projected 25 million bushels higher with a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol and the strong pace of weekly ethanol production reported so far for the marketing year.  Mostly offsetting this increase is a 20-million-bushel reduction in other food and industrial use.  Projected corn ending stocks are lowered 73 million bushels.  The projected range for the season-average farm corn price is raised 10 cents on each end to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.

Sorghum exports for 2014/15 are projected 10 million bushels higher on continued strong demand.  Higher sorghum prices, driven by the strong pace of export sales and shipments, reduce the attractiveness of sorghum used in ethanol production and drive this month’s reduction in projected sorghum FSI use.  Sorghum feed and residual use is raised 5 million bushels with the increase in production.  The projected sorghum season-average farm price range is raised 20 cents on each end to $3.15 to $3.75 per bushel.  The projected 2014/15 season-average farm prices for barley and oats are also raised this month based on prices reported to date.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1.6 million tons higher as the U.S. reduction is more than offset by higher foreign output.  Foreign corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with increases for EU, Ukraine, and Mexico more than offsetting reductions for China and Kenya.  World mixed grain production is raised 1.3 million tons with an increase for EU on higher reported area and yields, mostly in Poland and Germany.  World barley output is raised 0.6 million tons with increases for EU and Algeria more than offsetting small reductions for Kazakhstan and the United States.  Sorghum production is raised for Mexico, but lowered for Argentina, leaving foreign production up slightly.  Rye production is lowered for EU. 

Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is lowered 1.1 million tons.  Corn use is lowered for China, but raised for EU, Ukraine, and Mexico.  Barley feed use is raised for China, but lowered for Ukraine.  Sorghum use is raised for Mexico and China.  Corn imports are lowered for EU, China, and Japan, but raised for Iran and South Korea.  Corn exports are lowered for Argentina and Brazil, but raised for Ukraine.  Barley and sorghum imports are raised for China.  Barley exports are raised for Canada and Ukraine.  World corn ending stocks are projected 0.9 million tons higher with the U.S. reduction more than offset by increases for Mexico, Brazil, Ukraine, China, and Argentina.