COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected higher with increases for corn, barley, and oats, only partly offset by a reduction for sorghum. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 50 million bushels with a reduction in expected feed and residual use reflecting December-February disappearance as indicated by March 1 stocks. Barley feed and residual use is lowered 5 million bushels, also on indications from March 1 stocks. Oats stocks are projected higher with a 3-million-bushel increase in imports based on the pace of trade to date. The projected range for the corn season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.55 to $3.85 per bushel.
A number of significant changes are made this month to the 2014/15 U.S. sorghum balance sheet to accommodate the continuing strong demand from China. Domestic sorghum use is lowered 41 million tons with decreases projected for food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and for feed and residual disappearance. FSI use is lowered 16 million bushels reflecting use for ethanol production to date from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report which indicated that use for ethanol dropped to zero in February. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels lower. Projected exports are raised 50 million bushels based on the continued strong pace of shipments and large outstanding sales. Ending stocks are expected 9 million bushels lower. The season-average sorghum farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.15 per bushel, up 10 cents at the midpoint of the range and 30 cents higher than the corn farm price.
U.S. sorghum feed and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at 85 million bushels, despite indicated feed and residual disappearance for the first half of the marketing year (September-February) of 154 million bushels. Early harvested 2015-crop sorghum, particularly from Texas, is expected to augment 2014/15 marketing year supplies and support exports at 350 million bushels during the 2014/15 marketing year that ends August 31. The Prospective Plantings report indicated that Texas producers intend to increase sorghum plantings by 20 percent for 2015. Last year, more than 80 percent of the Texas sorghum crop was mature by mid-August. These additional supplies, exported before the September 1 start of the new marketing year, push feed and residual use during the second half of 2014/15 (March-August) well into negative territory. These supplies will also boost first-quarter (September-November) feed and residual disappearance in the 2015/16 marketing year, as in 2014/15. NOTE: For additional information on this month’s sorghum changes see the April 13 Feed Outlook available from the Economic Research Service at www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn.aspx.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 4.2 million tons higher with much of the increase reflecting higher sorghum and millet output in Sudan. There are a number of smaller changes to corn, sorghum, and millet production in several other countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Elsewhere, corn production is raised for Serbia, Mexico, and Argentina, up 0.9 million tons, 0.8 million tons, and 0.5 million tons, respectively. The change for Serbia is based on the latest government revisions for the crop that was grown last summer. Heavy fall rains delayed harvesting and the final tally for that crop. Production is raised for Mexico reflecting the latest government statistics for the crop grown last summer. Increased area, exceptional winter rains, and plentiful supplies of irrigation water support prospects for the winter crop that was planted in the final months of 2014. The increase for Argentina is based on early harvest results that suggest very good yields in early planted corn and abundant soil moisture for the later planted corn now in grain fill. In addition to last month’s reduction of 2.0 million tons, the South Africa corn crop is lowered an additional 0.2 million tons based on further analysis of weather and satellite imagery.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised slightly, mostly on higher sorghum and millet food use for Sudan. China sorghum feed use is also raised, up 1.5 million tons with higher expected sorghum imports from the United States. Indonesia corn feeding is raised 0.4 million tons, more than offsetting a decrease in FSI use. Lower domestic use of corn, sorghum, and barley in the United States offset much of these increases. Global corn trade is raised for 2014/15 with imports higher for Indonesia, China, Iran, Algeria, Peru, and Colombia. Partly offsetting is a reduction in imports for Mexico with the larger crop. Corn exports are raised for Argentina and Serbia, but lowered for South Africa. Global coarse grain ending stocks are higher with corn stocks projected up 3.2 million tons mostly on increases for the United States, Indonesia, and China.