COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are lowered this month with reductions in corn beginning stocks and production. Corn beginning stocks for 2015/16 are down 97 million bushels as increases in 2014/15 feed and residual use, use in ethanol production, and exports more than offset a small increase in imports. Corn production for 2015/16 is projected down 100 million bushels reflecting the lower planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage. Sorghum, barley, and oats production are forecast higher based on the higher areas reported for all three crops and higher yields for barley and oats in today’s Crop Production.
Projected 2015/16 U.S. corn use is lowered with reductions for feed and residual use and exports more than offsetting higher expected corn use in ethanol production. Projected feed and residual use is reduced 25 million bushels with lower production, higher expected supplies of distillers’ grains, and the higher price outlook. Exports are lowered 25 million bushels with increased competition expected from larger supplies in Brazil. Use for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels with higher forecasts for 2015 and 2016 gasoline consumption in the latest outlook from the Energy Information Administration. The higher gasoline consumption outlook also boosts expected 2014/15 corn use for ethanol by 25 million bushels. This month’s higher projections for 2014/15 corn feed and residual use and exports reflect the latest indications of disappearance from the June 1 stocks estimate and reported export shipments and sales to date.
Other important 2015/16 feed grain changes include higher projected sorghum use, particularly for exports, and higher projected feed and residual use for sorghum and barley. Ending stocks for sorghum, barley, and oats are all projected higher reflecting larger crops and supplies this month.
Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 172 million bushels lower. Projected season-average prices received by producers for 2015/16 are higher for all the feed grains with corn up 25 cents to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel. This is up 5 cents per bushel, at the midpoint, from this month’s higher forecast for 2014/15. At $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel, the 2014/15 corn price range is raised 5 cents on both ends.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected down 4.3 million tons with much of the reduction from lower corn beginning stocks in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks are also lower with Brazil corn stocks down 1.5 million tons. Brazil corn exports for 2014/15 are increased, outpacing this month’s increase in 2014/15 production. Globally, corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 2.2 million tons with reductions in the United States and EU only partly offset by increases for Brazil and China. EU corn production is lowered 2.4 million tons as recent excessive heat and developing dryness across major growing areas reduces yield prospects. Corn production is lowered 0.3 million tons for neighboring Serbia where heat and dryness are also concerns. Brazil corn production is raised 2.0 million tons for 2015/16 with higher expected area for the crop that will be planted in the coming months. China corn production is raised 1.0 million tons also on higher area. Global barley and oats production for 2015/16 are lowered with reductions for EU and Canada.
Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is raised 0.9 million tons, partly reflecting higher expected sorghum feeding and imports for China with the larger U.S. crop. Corn feeding is raised for EU supported by larger imports as domestic grain supplies decline. World barley consumption is lowered with reductions for EU, Australia, and Canada on tighter global supplies. Brazil corn exports are raised for 2014/15 and 2015/16, up 2.5 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. EU corn imports are raised in both years. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 5.2 million tons lower mostly on the reduction expected for the United States. Corn ending stocks are also expected lower for EU and Brazil.