COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2016/17 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised this month as lower beginning stocks are more than offset by increased production. Corn beginning stocks for 2016/17 are lowered 7 million bushels as reductions in 2015/16 feed and residual use and use for ethanol production are more than offset by increases in exports and seed use. Corn production for 2016/17 is projected 110 million bushels higher reflecting the increased planted and harvested areas from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected sorghum production for 2016/17 is raised 13 million bushels on higher expected harvested area. Oats production is forecast 9 million bushels higher and barley production is forecast 10 million bushels lower in today’s Crop Production report mostly reflecting area adjustments in the Acreage report.
Projected 2016/17 U.S. corn use is raised 30 million bushels as increased prospects for exports and higher seed use more than offset lower projected use for feed and residual and ethanol production. Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher on reduced competition from Brazil, as reflected by new-crop export sales that are well above a year ago. Projected feed and residual use for 2016/17 is lowered, despite the larger crop, reflecting implications of the lower-than-expected disappearance for 2015/16 indicated by the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Projected corn use for ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels in line with changes for 2015/16 driven by the latest data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. Corn seed use is revised higher back to 1995/96 to better reflect rising plant populations reported in the NASS objective yield survey data. Updated seed use estimates will be available in this month’s Economic Research Service Feed Outlook and from the Feed Grains Database at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx.
Corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected 73 million bushels higher. Projected season-average prices received by producers for 2016/17 are lowered for all the feed grains, with corn down 10 cents to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel. For 2015/16 the corn price is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to a range of $3.60 to $3.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2016/17 are projected slightly lower this month. Coarse grain beginning stocks are down slightly from last month mostly reflecting reductions in barley for the EU and corn for Brazil. Partly offsetting are higher corn stocks for China and Mexico. Global coarse grain output is largely unchanged with lower corn and barley production mostly offset by higher oats, sorghum, and rye production. Brazil corn production for 2016/17 is reduced 2.0 million tons based on lowered yield expectations. Canada corn production for 2016/17 is lowered 1.3 million tons based on the latest area information from Statistics Canada and lower yield prospects following one of the driest Junes in over 30 years in Ontario. Global barley production for 2016/17 is lowered, mostly on reductions for Turkey, Canada, Algeria, and Morocco, which more than offset increases for Australia, Ukraine and Uruguay.
Brazil corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 7.5 million tons reflecting the latest government statistics which confirm the adverse impact of this year’s early end to the rainy season in much of central Brazil. An unusual early June freeze also adversely affected second-crop corn in Parana following what had been a generally favorable growing season. Argentina corn production for 2015/16 is raised 1.0 million tons based on harvest data reported to date.
Global 2016/17 coarse grain consumption is lowered 3.3 million tons, mostly reflecting reduced corn feeding for the United States, Brazil, China, EU, South Korea, and Indonesia. Larger global supplies of feed-quality wheat are expected to undercut corn in price sensitive markets in the EU and Asia. EU corn imports are lowered for 2015/16 and 2016/17 with greater wheat and barley feeding. Brazil corn exports are lowered for 2015/16 and 2016/17, down 4.0 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Global 2016/17 corn ending stocks are projected 3.3 million tons higher mostly on a 2.1-million-ton increase for China. Outside of China, corn stocks are 1.2 million tons higher with larger stocks for the United States and Indonesia more than offsetting reductions for Brazil, Japan, and Canada.