COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain production is down slightly this month with a small reduction for corn partly offset by increases for barley and oats. Corn production is forecast 30 million bushels lower with harvested area lowered 437,000 acres. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-bushel-per acre increase in the national average corn yield to 168.0 bushels per acre. Estimated 2015/16 beginning stocks, from the September 30 Grain Stocks report, are nearly unchanged from last month’s projection. Small revisions to food, seed, and industrial use and trade, based on the latest data, boost 2014/15 feed and residual use 17 million bushels.
Projected U.S. corn usage for 2015/16 is unchanged this month. Ending stocks are projected 31 million bushels lower to 1,561 million. The 2015/16 season-average corn price received by producers is projected 5 cents higher on both ends to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 8.3 million tons lower mostly on reduced foreign corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn beginning stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons, reflecting higher 2014/15 EU corn feeding and exports and Ukraine exports. Global corn production for 2015/16 is lowered 5.5 million tons with reductions for Ukraine, Argentina, India, Philippines, and several Sub-Saharan African countries more than offsetting an increase for Brazil. Brazil corn production is also raised for 2014/15. Global 2015/16 production is lowered for rye, millet, sorghum, and barley. Rye production is lowered for EU. Millet and sorghum production are lowered for a number of Sub-Saharan African countries. Barley production is lowered for Russia, but mostly offset by increases for EU, Canada, and Australia. Mixed grain production is also raised for EU, leaving EU coarse grain production higher on the month.
Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is lowered 6.4 million tons with a 4.8-million-ton reduction in corn usage and smaller cuts in rye, millet, and sorghum consumption. Much of the decline in coarse grain consumption is for those Sub-Saharan African counties with lower output this month; however, reductions are also made for corn consumption in Saudi Arabia, EU, Ukraine, and Philippines, and rye consumption in EU. Corn trade for 2015/16 is lowered with a reduction in Saudi Arabia imports. Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine and Argentina but raised for Brazil. Global 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons lower at 187.8 million, 8.2 million lower than in 2014/15.