COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies are increased this month with higher forecast corn, sorghum, barley, and oats production. Corn production is forecast at 13.7 billion bushels, up 156 million from the July projection, with the season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast at 168.8 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection. Corn supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, up 154 million from last month with a small reduction in beginning stocks. Projected ending stocks for 2014/15 decline 6 million bushels with higher expected use. Increased use for sweeteners is partly offset by reductions in other categories of food and industrial use and an increase in imports.
Total U.S. corn use for 2015/16 is projected 40 million bushels higher as increased domestic usage is expected to more than offset a reduction in exports. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels higher with the larger crop and lower expected prices. Food, seed, and industrial use is projected up 40 million bushels with use for ethanol production raised 25 million bushels on the latest forecast for gasoline consumption by the Energy Information Administration. Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower with larger supplies in Brazil and Argentina expected to increase competition for U.S. corn in world markets. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 114 million bushels higher. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected 10 cents lower on both ends to $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel. This would be down 5 cents, at the midpoint, from the $3.65 to $3.75 per bushel expected for 2014/15.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 4.8 million tons higher with a 3.0-million-ton increase in beginning stocks and a 1.8-million-ton increase in global coarse grain production. Foreign corn beginning stocks are up 3.6 million tons with increases in 2014/15 production for Brazil and Mexico and increases in 2014/15 imports for China, EU, South Korea, and Mexico. Argentina corn production is also raised for 2014/15. Foreign corn production for 2015/16 is reduced 5.5 million tons with reductions for China, EU, and Serbia, only partly offset by increases for Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia. Global barley production is higher this month with increases for Ukraine and Morocco outweighing a reduction for Canada.
Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is lowered slightly with a reduction in global corn use driven by reductions in corn feeding for EU, China, and Ukraine. Higher wheat feeding is expected for EU and Ukraine, and higher sorghum feeding for China. Global coarse grain trade is higher with corn imports raised for EU, barley imports raised for Saudi Arabia, and sorghum imports raised for China. Corn exports are raised for Ukraine, Brazil, and Russia with larger crops. Corn exports are reduced for Serbia, EU, and the United States. Barley exports are raised for Ukraine, but lowered for Canada. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States with the larger crop. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are raised this month with a 5.1-million-ton increase for corn mostly on higher stocks in the United States, Brazil, and Mexico.