COTTON: A marginal reduction of 50,000 bales in 2015/16 domestic mill use is the sole revision in this month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates. U.S. ending stocks are now forecast at 4.1 million bales for 2015/16 and 4.8 million bales for 2016/17. The forecasts for the marketing year average price received by producers are unchanged for both seasons.
The world 2016/17 cotton projections include lower beginning and ending stocks, due mainly to reductions in expected production by China. The China crop estimates are reduced 1.3 million bales for 2015/16 and 1.0 million bales for 2016/17, based on reports from Chinese sources indicating that 2015-crop production in eastern China was lower than previously estimated. Projected 2016/17 production is also reduced for Egypt and the African Franc Zone, with Egypt’s production pegged at its lowest level since the mid-1800’s. Slightly lower world consumption includes a reduction for India, partially offset by an increase for Turkey. Projected global stocks of 94.7 million bales are 1.7 million bales below last month, reflecting a 2.0-million-bale decrease in China ending stocks.