WASDE: Cotton Production Forecast Up Slightly

January 12, 2015 11:08 AM
WASDE: Cotton Production Forecast Up Slightly

COTTON:  The 2014/15 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly larger production and ending stocks.  Production is raised 161,000 bales, as the crop is estimated higher in all regions except the Southeast.  Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged, resulting in estimated ending stocks of 4.7 million bales.  The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers of 59.5 to 63.5 cents per pound is narrowed 0.5 cents on both ends, with the midpoint unchanged at 61.5 cents.

The 2014/15 world cotton estimates show small revisions from last month.  Total world production is marginally higher, as increases for Pakistan, the United States, and Tanzania are mostly offset by a decrease for India.  Global consumption is reduced nearly 400,000 bales, as a decrease for China is partially offset by increases for Sudan and Zimbabwe.  China’s consumption is lowered as mills’ response to falling domestic cotton prices continues to be sluggish and yarn imports to date remain high.  World trade is reduced marginally based on decreases in Pakistan’s imports and India’s exports.  World ending stocks are now projected at 108.6 million bales.

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