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WASDE: Cotton Production Unchanged at 14.5 Million Bales

16:03PM Jul 10, 2015

COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2015/16 show marginally lower beginning and ending stocks. The production forecast of 14.5 million bales is unchanged from last month, as lower expected abandonment and slightly higher yields offset the reduced planted area indicated in the Acreage report.  Domestic mill use and exports are both revised slightly, based on changes made in the 2014/15 balance sheet, which reflect recent activity.  The 2015/16 projected ending stocks are 4.2 million bales, down 200,000 from last month and unchanged from the beginning level.  The projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 54 to 70 cents per pound is raised 4 cents on the lower end, with a midpoint of 62 cents.

This month’s world cotton supply and demand estimates indicate lower consumption and higher ending stocks for both 2014/15 and 2015/16 relative to last month.  China’s consumption is reduced sharply in both years due to continued strong competition from both polyester and imported cotton products.  At the same time, 2015/16’s projected growth in world cotton consumption remains above 3 percent, as this month’s reductions in consumption by China, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are partially offset by increases for India and Vietnam.  World production is about unchanged, but world trade is raised, as lower imports by China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are more than offset by an increase for Vietnam.  Projected 2015/16 world ending stocks are raised by more than 2.0 million bales; however, with the expected China carryover 2.5 million bales above last month, stocks outside of China are projected lower.