OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2016/17 include lower beginning stocks, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks in 2016/17 reflect higher crush and export projections for 2015/16. Soybean crush for 2015/16 is raised 10 million bushels to 1,890 million reflecting an increase in projected soybean meal exports. Soybean meal exports are raised in part on commitments through early June. Soybean exports for 2015/16 are projected at 1,760 million bushels, up 20 million with reduced soybean production and exports for Brazil and Uruguay. Soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 370 million bushels, down 30 million from last month. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are reduced 45 million bushels to 260 million on lower beginning stocks and increased exports. Exports are raised with reductions for Brazil and Ukraine.
The 2016/17 season-average price for soybeans is forecast at $8.75 to $10.25 per bushel, up 40 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $320 to $360 per short ton, up $20 at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are unchanged at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound.
Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 533.9 million tons, up fractionally from last month. Sunflowerseed production is raised for Ukraine on higher planted area based on reported planting progress to date. The increase for sunflowerseed is mostly offset with reduced soybean and cottonseed production for Ukraine and China, respectively. Changes for 2015/16 include reduced soybean production for Brazil, Uruguay, and China. The Brazil soybean crop is reduced 2.0 million tons to 97.0 million reflecting the latest crop production report from the Government of Brazil. Hot, dry conditions in parts of the Center-West and northeast resulted in reduced yields.
With a lower soybean production estimate, Brazil October-September year exports and stocks are reduced for both 2015/16 and 2016/17. Higher projected U.S. exports in 2015/16 and 2016/17 partly offset the decline to Brazil trade and reduce U.S. ending stocks. Other trade changes in 2015/16 include reduced exports for Uruguay and imports for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Ukraine 2016/17 soybean exports are also cut with a lower forecast crop. With lower global soybean beginning stocks and production, and a negligible change to crush, global stocks for 2016/17 are projected at 66.3 million tons, down 1.9 million from last month.