COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for 2015/16 U.S. feed grain supplies is raised slightly this month with increases in corn and oats beginning stocks outweighing a decline for barley. Projected corn production for 2015/16 is unchanged at 13,630 million bushels, 4 percent below last year’s record level. Corn beginning stocks for 2015/16 are raised with a 25-million-bushel reduction in 2014/15 forecast corn use in ethanol production based on data reported in the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report through April. Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1,771 million bushels, up 25 million bushels, the same as for beginning stocks. The range for the 2015/16 season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, compared with the 2014/15 range of $3.55 to $3.75 per bushel, which is also unchanged this month.
Changes to 2015/16 oats and barley beginning stocks and supplies reflect 2014/15 changes to forecast trade. Oats imports for 2014/15 are raised 2 million bushels on the latest indications of trade. Barley exports for 2014/15 are projected 400,000 bushels larger also based on the latest indications. Farm price projections for sorghum, barley, and oats are all unchanged this month for 2014/15 and 2015/16.
Foreign coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected up 2.8 million tons, mostly reflecting larger 2014/15 production and carryout for Brazil. Brazil corn production for 2014/15 is raised 3 million tons to a near-record 81.0 million with higher area reported for the second or safrinha crop that will be harvested over the coming months. Yields are also projected higher reflecting extended rainfall through May, well beyond the normal end of the rainy season in central west Brazil. Global corn production for 2015/16 is projected down 0.5 million tons with reductions for Zambia, Nepal, Zimbabwe, and EU more than offsetting a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia. Russia 2015/16 corn production is raised 1.0 million tons on a higher area and yield. Planting progress data indicate a year-to-year increase in seeded area, which is also reflected in higher year-to-year imports of agricultural chemicals. While hybrid seed imports have been reported down from last year, these imports have also been stronger than expected as corn remained a favorable alternative compared with other spring crops.
Global 2015/16 coarse grain consumption is raised slightly supported by higher expected corn trade. Foreign corn exports are raised for 2015/16 with a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia as higher production makes the country’s corn supplies very competitive in the Middle East and North Africa. Corn exports are raised 0.3 million tons for Zambia, despite this month’s lowered production outlook, as demand for imported corn, especially white corn, soars in the region with crop shortfalls in Zimbabwe and South Africa. Global corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 3.3 million tons higher mostly on the higher stocks expected for Brazil. Small reductions in corn stocks for Russia and EU offset most of the increase projected this month for the United States.