RICE: There are no changes to this month’s 2015/16 U.S. rice supply and use projections. The all rice price is lowered $0.40 per cwt at the high end and $0.20 at the low end to a range of $12.50 to $13.30. The long-grain price is lowered $0.20 per cwt at the midpoint and the medium/short-grain price is lowered $0.60 per cwt at the midpoint. The price changes are made based on reported prices to date and expectations regarding prices for the remainder of the market year.
Global rice supplies for 2015/16 are reduced 1.0 million tons on decreased production and lower beginning stocks. The largest production change is a 0.5-million-ton decline for Thailand on the lack of water available. Brazil is down 0.1 million tons on updated government statistics, while crop estimates are lowered for Nicaragua and other Central American countries to reflect drought conditions. Beginning stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons primarily due to Vietnam. Global 2015/16 exports are lowered 0.5 million tons led by 0.3-million-ton reductions each for Thailand and Vietnam, both on lower exportable supplies. Global imports are reduced 0.2 million tons with the biggest reduction 150,000 tons for Iran.
World rice consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 0.6 million tons, but remains a record at 483.7 million tons. The largest reduction is for Thailand, which is lowered 0.3 million tons on a smaller crop. With the reduction in global supplies greater than the reduction in total use, world ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 89.3 million, the smallest since 2007/08.