WHEAT: There are no changes to this month’s all wheat balance sheets. By class, Hard Red Winter wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels and Hard Red Spring wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels.
Global 2015/16 wheat supplies are lowered 3.3 million tons primarily on decreased production. The largest production change is a 2.4-million-ton decrease for India on updated government statistics. Australia production is lowered 1.5 million tons reflecting the sharp reduction in harvested area by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). The ABARES upward yield revision confirms USDA’s earlier analysis of weather data and satellite imagery. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton increase for EU production. Global 2015/16 wheat production remains a record. World trade is lowered 0.4 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Australia on the smaller crop. Russia exports are lowered 0.5 million tons on a slow pace and reduced competitiveness to EU origins. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton increase for Argentina reflecting a very strong shipment pace.
World wheat consumption for 2015/16 is lowered 2.0 million tons to 709.4 million. India consumption is lowered 1.0 million tons reflecting the smaller crop. Consumption in Egypt and Iraq are each lowered 0.4 million tons, and the Philippines is lowered 0.3 million tons. With supplies declining faster than total use, ending stocks are lowered 1.3 million tons but remain record large.