WHEAT: No changes are made to the U.S. all wheat balance sheet this month. By-class, the only changes are a 10-million-bushel increase in 2015/16 Hard Red Winter exports that is offset by a 10-million-reduction in Hard Red Spring exports.
Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.3 million tons primarily on increased production but also higher beginning stocks. World wheat production remains record high and is raised 1.9 million tons to 734.9 million. The primary production change is for Canada, which is raised 1.6 million tons to 27.6 million on a Statistics Canada report.
Global wheat trade for 2015/16 is raised with exports up 1.3 million tons on larger supplies, expected policy changes in Argentina, and stronger demand in several importing countries. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for Argentina, and 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Ukraine. The Argentina change is based on the expectation that the new government will reduce export restrictions. The Canada change is on a larger crop as well as a strong pace to date. The Ukraine change is also on a fast pace as well as strong feed wheat demand in Southeast Asia. Partially offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction for EU exports on a slow pace of licenses and competition, especially from Black Sea origins. The largest import increases are 0.4 million tons for Ethiopia on expectations of additional tenders in response to emergency food needs, and 0.3 million tons each for Indonesia and Thailand on increased feed wheat purchases.
Total world wheat consumption for 2015/16 is down 0.2 million tons. The biggest change is a 1.0-million-ton decrease in EU wheat feeding that is mostly offset by increased consumption in several other countries, notably 0.3 million-ton-increases each for Indonesia and Thailand feeding. Global ending stocks are projected 2.6 million tons higher with large increases for the EU and Canada partially offset by decreases for Argentina and Ukraine.