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WASDE: Meat Production Forecast Raised; Milk Lowered

17:11PM Jan 12, 2015

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production for 2015 is raised from last month on increased beef and pork production.  Poultry production forecasts are unchanged.  Beef production is raised on higher carcass weights.  USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated farrowings increased 3 percent in September-November 2014 and that producers intend to expand farrowings by 4 percent during December-May 2015.  The report also showed that pigs per litter was record high for the September-November period; continued growth in pigs per litter is expected during 2015, resulting in greater availability of hogs for slaughter.  However, the increase in the number of slaughter hogs may be partly offset by lower weights as hogs are marketed more rapidly.  For 2014, the total meat production estimate is raised on higher pork and broiler production.  Beef production is reduced on a slightly slower pace of slaughter.

The forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are raised, but the export forecast is reduced for 2014.  Pork exports for 2014 are reduced on the pace of shipments, but the forecast is unchanged for 2015.  No change is made to imports.  Broiler exports are reduced slightly for 2015.  No change is made to the turkey export forecasts.  

The cattle price forecasts for 2015 are reduced from last month.  The hog price forecast for 2015 is lowered on larger supplies.  Broiler prices are lowered for 2015 as supplies of competing meats pressure prices.  No change is made to turkey or egg prices.  Prices for 2014 are adjusted to incorporate December data.

The milk production estimate for 2014 and the forecast for 2015 are lowered from last month on slower growth in cow numbers and milk per cow.  Skim-solids export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015 primarily on stronger sales of whey and nonfat dry milk.  Fat basis exports are unchanged for 2014 but slightly higher in 2015.  Ending stocks for 2014 are raised as domestic demand has been weaker than expected.   

Dairy product prices for 2015 are reduced as carry-in stocks are higher and supplies remain relatively large, especially in the first half of the year.  However, demand is expected to strengthen later in the year with lower price levels, limiting further price declines.  The Class III and Class IV prices for 2015 are lowered on weaker product prices.  The all milk price is lowered to $17.75-18.55 per cwt for 2015.