WASDE: More Milk, Less Meat

September 11, 2015 11:10 AM
 
WASDE: More Milk, Less Meat

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016 are lowered from last month.  Beef production for 2015 is lowered due to a slower pace of slaughter in the third quarter, but the decline is partly offset by heavier carcass weights.  The forecast for 2016 is raised as continued increases in carcass weights support higher beef production.  The pork production forecast for 2015 is reduced as the pace of slaughter in the third quarter is lower-than-expected.  No change is made to 2016 forecasts.  USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 25, providing an estimate of market hog supplies and farrowing intentions into early 2016.  Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered from last month as producers respond to weaker margins.  Turkey production for 2015 is lowered based on hatchery data, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.  Egg production for 2015 is lowered based on a slower-than-expected recovery in table egg production and lower hatching egg production, the latter a result of slower growth in the broiler sector.

Beef imports are reduced for 2015 based on the pace on imports in July, but the forecast for 2016 is raised as product shipped late in 2015 may not arrive until early 2016.  Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand in the second half of the year is projected to remain relatively weak.  Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged.  Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow demand is expected to continue for the remainder of the year and into 2016. 

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on weaker demand and competition from other meats.  Hog prices are higher for 2015 based on prices in the third quarter.  Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on relatively large broiler meat supplies.  Turkey prices are unchanged from last month.  Egg prices for 2015 are lowered slightly, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.

The milk production forecast for 2015 is raised on a larger expected cow herd and slightly more rapid growth in milk per cow.  However, the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.  Fat-basis imports are increased and exports are reduced for 2015 and 2016.  Domestic demand for butter, and to a lesser extent cheese, encourages imports and limits export potential.  Fat basis ending stocks are raised.  Skim-solids imports are unchanged for 2015 and 2016.  Exports are reduced on lower expected sales of nonfat dry milk and whey.  

Domestic demand for butter is expected to support relatively high prices in the United States.  As a result, the butter price forecast is increased for both 2015 and 2016.  Cheese prices are raised for 2015, but increased production in 2016 may pressure prices despite growing domestic demand.  Thus, the price forecast for 2016 is lowered.  Nonfat dry milk prices are forecast higher in 2015 reflecting the recent rebound in prices, but the forecast is unchanged for 2016.  Whey prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016.  Class III prices are reduced for 2015 and 2016, largely reflecting lower whey prices.  Class IV prices are raised primarily due to the higher butter price.  The all milk price is raised to $16.80 to $17.00 per cwt for 2015, but lowered to $16.10 to $17.10 per cwt for 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

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