LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2015 is lower than last month, but higher for 2016. Beef production for 2015 is lowered as fed cattle slaughter in the second quarter is reduced and cow and bull slaughter is expected lower during the year. However, placements of cattle in late 2015 are expected to be higher as forage supplies in much of the country have improved and the slaughter of these cattle in 2016 supports an increase in the 2016 production forecast. Pork production for 2015 is raised due to higher-than-expected second-quarter slaughter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 26 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2015. Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is raised from last month based on hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced for both 2015 and 2016 as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has significantly affected supplies of turkeys and the expected pace of flock recovery results in a reduced 2016 production forecast. Egg production for 2015 and 2016 is also lowered as HPAI has impacted the laying flock, and the forecast into 2016 reflects the expected speed at which the flock can be rebuilt.
Forecasts for 2015 and 2016 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; no change is made to the export forecast. Pork imports for 2015 are reduced, but exports are higher based on the pace of trade to date. No change is made to 2016 pork trade. Broiler exports for 2015 are lowered as demand has been below expectations; no change is made to 2016. Turkey exports are reduced for both 2015 and 2016 as supplies are tightened by HPAI.
Cattle prices for 2015 are reduced from last month on prices to date and the forecast for 2016 is reduced on expected larger supplies of fed cattle. Hog prices are higher in 2015 but unchanged for 2016. Broiler prices are unchanged as continued strong domestic demand is expected to absorb increased supplies of broiler meat. Turkey and egg prices for 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month on tighter supplies.
Milk production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month on gains in output per cow. The fat basis export forecast for 2015 is raised on higher cheese exports. Skim solids exports for both 2015 and 2016 are raised on larger exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM). Fat basis imports are raised for both 2015 and 2016 on expectations of strong demand for imported cheese.
Butter, NDM, and whey prices for 2015 are forecast lower on relatively abundant supplies of those products. The cheese price forecast is raised on strong demand. NDM and whey prices are reduced for 2016. The 2016 butter price range is narrowed. The Class III price forecast is raised for 2015 on stronger cheese prices but reduced for 2016 on lower whey prices. Class IV prices for 2015 and 2016 are lowered on weaker product prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.15 to $17.75 per cwt for 2015 and $17.45 to $18.45 per cwt for 2016.