WASDE: Projected All Rice Crop Raised to 192.3 Million Cwt.

January 12, 2016 11:08 AM
 
WASDE: Projected All Rice Crop Raised to 192.3 Million Cwt.

RICE: The U.S. 2015/16 all rice crop is projected at 192.3 million cwt, up 1.6 million from last month.  Long-grain production is up 0.7 million cwt to 133.0 million, and medium- and short-grain is raised 0.9 million cwt to 59.3 million.  The all rice production increase stems from both higher harvested area and yield.  The all rice yield increased 47 pounds per acre to 7,470, and harvested area increased 5,000 acres to 2.58 million.  Imports are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 24.0 million on a slower pace to date.  Changes are made on the use side with domestic and residual lowered 6.0 million cwt and exports raised 4.0 million (both changes are all long-grain).  The reduction in domestic and residual use reflects implied use from the December 1 Rice Stocks report and very strong August-November exports, especially to Latin America.  Ending stocks are projected at 41.9 million cwt, up 3.1 million cwt from last month, but down 6.6 million from the previous year.  The all rice season average price is lowered $0.40 on each end of the range to $12.70 to $13.70 per cwt.  The long-grain price is lowered $0.50 on each end of the range to $11.00-$12.00 per cwt.  The all medium- and short-grain price is lowered $0.40 on each end of the range to $16.60-$17.60 per cwt. 

Global 2015/16 rice supplies are raised 0.9 million tons to 574.0 million primarily on increased production.  The largest production gains are 0.3 million tons each for China and the Philippines.  The China increase is on updated government data.  The Philippine increase comes from reported damage related to Typhoon Koppu, that struck a key rice growing region last October, which was less severe than initially thought.  World exports are raised 0.8 million tons to 42.2 million on increased demand, especially in Southeast Asia.  Global consumption is lowered 0.4 million tons to 484.3 million, but remains record large.  Ending stocks are raised 1.3 million tons to 89.7 million, but are still 14.2 million tons below last year and the tightest stocks since 2007/08. 

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