WASDE: Rice Ending Stocks Face an 11% Increase

04:08PM May 12, 2015
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RICE:    U.S. 2015/16 all rice supplies are forecast up 3 percent from 2014/15 and total use is up 2 percent.  This will lead to an 11 percent increase in 2015/16 ending stocks projected at 47.4 million cwt. Beginning stocks for 2015/16 are forecast at 42.9 million cwt.  Projected 2015/16 imports at a record 24.5 million cwt.  U.S. rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 219.0 million cwt.  Long-grain production is projected at 162.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain production at 57.0 million.  All rice harvested area is estimated at 2.90 million acres.  Long-grain harvested area is 2.19 million acres.  Combined medium- and short-grain harvested area is 0.71 million acres.  The drought-induced drop in California medium- and short-grain area has attracted more acres of medium-grain rice in the Delta where plantings in 2015 are projected up 3 percent.  U.S. all rice average yield is projected at 7,562 pounds per acre, nearly the same as last year.

U.S. 2015/16 all rice total use is projected at 239.0 million cwt with domestic and residual use at 131.0 million and exports at 108.0 million.  Long-grain rice exports are projected at 76.0 million cwt, and medium- and short-grain rice exports at 32.0 million.  U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 47.4 million cwt with long-grain ending stocks at 34.1 million cwt, and medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 11.0 million.

The U.S. 2015/16 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $10.00 to $11.00 per cwt, compared to a revised $11.80 to $12.20 for the previous year.  The medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt, compared to a revised $17.80 to $18.20 for the year earlier.  The 2015/16 all rice price is projected at $12.30 to $13.30 per cwt, compared to a revised $13.20 to $13.60 per cwt for 2014/15.  The California medium- and short-grain price is expected to strengthen slightly, and the Other States price is unchanged from 2014/15.

Global 2015/16 total rice ending stocks are expected to drop 6.9 million tons to 91.5 million tons with a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.7 percent, the lowest since 2006/07.  World rice production is projected at a record 482.1 million tons.  Global consumption is projected at a record 489.0 million tons.  Global exports in 2015/16 are projected at 42.4 million tons.  Exports in 2015/16 will be down from the previous year for India and Pakistan, but up for Burma, Cambodia, and the United States.  Thailand’s exports are unchanged at 11.0 million tons.  Larger 2015/16 imports are projected for China and the Middle East.  Global 2015/16 ending stocks are projected at 91.5 million tons, the lowest stocks since 2007/08.  The global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.7 percent is the lowest since 2006/07.  The largest year-to-year stocks reductions occur in India, Thailand, Indonesia, and China.

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