WASDE: Rice Ending Stocks Face an 11% Increase

May 12, 2015 11:08 AM
WASDE: Rice Ending Stocks Face an 11% Increase

RICE:    U.S. 2015/16 all rice supplies are forecast up 3 percent from 2014/15 and total use is up 2 percent.  This will lead to an 11 percent increase in 2015/16 ending stocks projected at 47.4 million cwt. Beginning stocks for 2015/16 are forecast at 42.9 million cwt.  Projected 2015/16 imports at a record 24.5 million cwt.  U.S. rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 219.0 million cwt.  Long-grain production is projected at 162.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain production at 57.0 million.  All rice harvested area is estimated at 2.90 million acres.  Long-grain harvested area is 2.19 million acres.  Combined medium- and short-grain harvested area is 0.71 million acres.  The drought-induced drop in California medium- and short-grain area has attracted more acres of medium-grain rice in the Delta where plantings in 2015 are projected up 3 percent.  U.S. all rice average yield is projected at 7,562 pounds per acre, nearly the same as last year.

U.S. 2015/16 all rice total use is projected at 239.0 million cwt with domestic and residual use at 131.0 million and exports at 108.0 million.  Long-grain rice exports are projected at 76.0 million cwt, and medium- and short-grain rice exports at 32.0 million.  U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 47.4 million cwt with long-grain ending stocks at 34.1 million cwt, and medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 11.0 million.

The U.S. 2015/16 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $10.00 to $11.00 per cwt, compared to a revised $11.80 to $12.20 for the previous year.  The medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt, compared to a revised $17.80 to $18.20 for the year earlier.  The 2015/16 all rice price is projected at $12.30 to $13.30 per cwt, compared to a revised $13.20 to $13.60 per cwt for 2014/15.  The California medium- and short-grain price is expected to strengthen slightly, and the Other States price is unchanged from 2014/15.

Global 2015/16 total rice ending stocks are expected to drop 6.9 million tons to 91.5 million tons with a stocks-to-use ratio of 18.7 percent, the lowest since 2006/07.  World rice production is projected at a record 482.1 million tons.  Global consumption is projected at a record 489.0 million tons.  Global exports in 2015/16 are projected at 42.4 million tons.  Exports in 2015/16 will be down from the previous year for India and Pakistan, but up for Burma, Cambodia, and the United States.  Thailand’s exports are unchanged at 11.0 million tons.  Larger 2015/16 imports are projected for China and the Middle East.  Global 2015/16 ending stocks are projected at 91.5 million tons, the lowest stocks since 2007/08.  The global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.7 percent is the lowest since 2006/07.  The largest year-to-year stocks reductions occur in India, Thailand, Indonesia, and China.

Back to news




Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer