RICE: U.S. all rice production in 2015/16 is forecast at 190.8 million cwt, up 3.0 million from last month, with the increase entirely due to a higher yield. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,423 pounds per acre, up 116 pounds from last month. Yields are raised for all states except for Texas and Arkansas. Yields are lowered for Texas and unchanged for Arkansas. The California all rice yield is raised 600 pounds per acre to 8,600 pounds. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice production are both raised from last month, with long-grain production projected at 132.4 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 58.4 million. The all rice import forecast is unchanged at 25.5 million cwt. All rice domestic and residual use is raised 2.0 million cwt to 127.0 million cwt, 1.0 million each in long-grain and medium- and short-grain rice. All rice exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 98.0 million cwt with the increase in long-grain. Long-grain exports are projected at 65.0 million, and medium- and short-grain exports at 33.0 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 39.8 million cwt, unchanged from last month with long-grain stocks at 21.8 million, and medium- and short-grain at 16.1 million.
The 2015/16 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $11.50 to $12.50 per cwt, down $1.30 per cwt on both ends from last month. The medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.60 to $18.60 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The California medium- and short-grain rice price at a midpoint of $21.50 per cwt is up $0.50 per cwt from last month. The Other States medium- and short-grain rice price at a midpoint of $13.00 per cwt is lowered $1.00 per cwt. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.30 to $14.30 per cwt, down $0.90 per cwt on each end of the range. Lower-than-expected prices published by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) for August and September, along with price expectations the remainder of the marketing year, support the downward adjustment in rice prices from a month ago.
Global 2015/16 ending stocks are raised 2.7 million tons or 3 percent due mostly to an increase in beginning stocks and a decrease in consumption. Beginning stocks for 2015/16 are raised 1.9 million tons due mostly to downward adjustments in 2014/15 consumption for China and India, that consequently raised 2014/15 ending stocks. Consumption changes in recent years for China and India are based on reports received from the Agricultural Counselor’s offices in each country. In China, consumption is lowered for both 2014/15 and 2015/16 due to higher prices, inconsistent quality of state rice reserves, and changing consumption patterns. In India, consumption is lowered and ending stocks are raised to better reflect government of India reports on the stocks situation. Global production for 2015/16 is lowered 0.5 million tons to 473.5 million, primarily due to smaller crops forecast for Bangladesh, Cambodia, and the Philippines, partially offset by increases for Sri Lanka, South Korea, and the United States. World consumption is projected at 486.2 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month, but still a record. Consumption is lowered for Cambodia, China, India, and Vietnam. Trade for 2015/16 is lowered slightly due mostly to smaller exports by Cambodia, and smaller imports by Sri Lanka and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are forecast at 91.0 million tons, up 2.7 million from last month, but a decrease of 12.7 million tons from the preceding year, and the lowest stocks since 2007/08. The 2015/16 stocks-to-use ratio at 18.7 percent is the lowest since 2006/07.