WASDE: Rice Production, Supplies Fall

16:08PM Jul 10, 2015

RICE:   U.S. 2015/16 all rice supplies are lowered 11.0 million cwt to 278.4 million due to a production decrease.  Supplies of long-grain rice are lowered 12.5 million, but medium- and short-grain rice supplies are raised 1.5 million.  All rice production is lowered 12.0 million cwt to 207.0 million due mostly to a decrease in area with long-grain production reduced 9.5 million and medium- and short-grain rice lowered 2.5 million.  All rice planted area, as reported in Acreage is estimated at 2.77 million acres, with long-grain at 2.07 million, and medium- and short-grain area at 0.69 million.  Beginning stocks for 2015/16 are raised 1.0 million cwt to 46.4 million due to revisions made to 2014/15 all rice and rice-by-class supply and use.  All rice average yield is estimated at 7,544 pounds per acre.  All rice total use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 240.0 million cwt, with domestic and residual use lowered 1.0 million cwt to 130.0 million, and exports unchanged at 110.0 million cwt.  Ending stocks are projected at 38.4 million cwt, down 10.0 million.

U.S. 2014/15 all rice exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt, raising ending stocks by the same amount. Long-grain domestic and residual use and exports are raised; ending stocks lowered; and the season-average price increased.  Medium-and short-grain domestic and residual use and exports lowered; ending stocks raised and the average price unchanged.  June 1 Rice Stocks implied shifts in the rice-by-class domestic and residual use estimates.  Rice-by-class export estimates are based on U.S. Census Bureau trade data through May and the latest export sales data.

U.S. long-grain 2015/16 rice season-average price is projected at $10.90 to $11.90 per cwt, up 90 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  Medium- and short-grain price is unchanged at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt.  All rice price is projected at $13.00 to $14.00 per cwt, up 70 cents on each end of the range.  California medium- and short-grain price range is raised 50 cents.  Other States medium-and short-grain price midpoint is lowered 20 cents per cwt.

Reduced global 2015/16 rice production leads to lower ending stocks.  World rice production is projected at 480.3 million tons, still a record, down 1.4 million from last month, but up 4.0 million from last year.  Rice crops are lowered for Australia, Madagascar, North Korea, Thailand, and the United States.  Dry conditions in principal rice growing areas of Thailand led to a 4-percent cut in production to 19.0 million tons, still slightly above 2014/15.  North Korea’s crop is lowered 6 percent to 1.6 million tons due to dry conditions in the main rice producing region.  Australia’s rice crop is lowered due to falling reservoir levels and a drop in expected planted area.  Global consumption and trade are lowered.  Thailand’s export projection is reduced 0.8 million tons to 10.2 million because of tighter supplies.  Conversely, export projections are raised for Burma, Pakistan, and Vietnam.  Global ending stocks are projected at 90.5 million tons, down 0.9 million, the lowest since 2007/08.  The global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.5 percent is the lowest since 2006/07.  Ending stocks are lowered for Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States.