WASDE: Rice Production up, Harvested Acres Estimated to Increase 25 Percent

July 12, 2016 11:08 AM

U.S. 2016/17 all rice supplies are raised 12.0 million cwt to 309.9 million on a production increase that is partially offset by lower beginning stocks.  Long-grain production is raised 2.0 million cwt while combined medium- and short-grain production is raised 12.0 million cwt.  The production increase reflects the 148,000 acre increase in planted area (mostly California medium- and short-grain rice) from NASS’ June Acreage report.  Harvested area is forecast at 3.2 million acres, up 24 percent from the previous year.  Beginning stocks are reduced 2.0 million cwt on an equivalent increase in 2015/16 exports.  For 2016/17, all rice domestic and residual use and exports are each raised 3.0 million cwt to 138.0 million and 115.0 million, respectively.  Ending stocks are unchanged for long-grain, but raised 6.0 million to 16.5 million for medium- and short-grain.  All rice ending stocks are now forecast at 56.9 million cwt, the largest since 1985/86.  The all rice season-average farm price is lowered $0.40 per cwt at the midpoint to a projected range of $11.20 to $12.20, reflecting lower expected California prices.  

Global rice supplies for 2016/17 are raised 0.6 million tons primarily on the larger U.S. crop.  Several mostly offsetting changes are made for 2015/16 and 2016/17 exports, imports, and domestic use.  Global ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 0.4 million tons to 107.3 million.   

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