U.S. 2015/16 rice ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million cwt this month to 42.9 million
on a 1.0-million-cwt increase in exports which is partially offset by a 0.5-million-cwt increase
in imports. The larger exports are based on a faster-than-expected pace of sales of southern
medium- and short-grain rice to North Africa and the Middle East. Exports for 2016/17 are
lowered 1.0 million cwt to 112.0 million, with reductions for medium- and short-grain, due to
tightening supplies. Ending stocks for 2016/17 are raised 0.5 million cwt to 50.9 million, and
are the largest ending stocks since the mid-1980’s.
The 2015/16 all rice season-average price is lowered $0.10 per cwt on both the high and low
ends of the range. The 2016/17 all rice price is raised $0.30 per cwt at the midpoint based
on stronger-than-expected forward prices for long-grain rice and strengthening prices in
Global rice supplies are raised fractionally for both 2015/16 and 2016/17. The largest
change is a 0.5-million-ton increase in 2015/16 India production to 103.5 million on updated
government data. Only slight changes are made this month to global trade, use, and ending
stocks for both the 2015/16 and 2016/17 marketing years.