RICE: U.S. 2015/16 rice supplies are lowered 14.9 million cwt from last month resulting from a decrease in production that is partially offset by a slight increase in beginning stocks. Imports are unchanged. U.S. rice production for 2015/16 is forecast at 189.5 million cwt, down 15.5 million from last month due to a decrease in both area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.57 million acres, down 174,000 from last month. Harvested area estimates are lowered for all states except California. The average all rice yield is estimated at 7,374 pounds per acre, down 98 pounds per acre from last month, with decreases in all states except Mississippi. Long-grain rice production is forecast at 131.5 million cwt, down 17.5 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million. All rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 are raised 0.7 million cwt from last month to 48.5 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDA’s August Rice Stocks report. All rice 2015/16 domestic consumption and residual is lowered 4.0 million cwt to 125.0 million due mainly to lower supplies. Exports are forecast at 97.0 million cwt, down 10.0 million from last month with long-grain exports down 10.0 million, but medium- and short-grain unchanged. All rice ending stocks are lowered 0.9 million cwt to 41.5 million.
The 2015/16 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.80 to $13.80 per cwt, up $1.30 per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $11.90 per cwt for 2014/15. The all medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.50 to $18.50 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $17.90 per cwt for 2014/15. The California medium- and short-grain rice price, at a midpoint of $21.00 per cwt, is unchanged from last month. The Other States medium-and short-grain rice price, at a midpoint of $14.50 per cwt, is lowered 30 cents per cwt. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.20 to $15.20 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt from a month ago compared to a revised $13.20 per cwt for 2014/15.
Projected global 2015/16 rice ending stocks are reduced on lower supplies. Global rice production is projected at 475.8 million tons, down 2.9 million from last month, primarily due to smaller crops forecast for Burma, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Philippines, and the United States. This is the first year-to-year decrease in production since 2009/10. Burma’s crop is lowered due to significant widespread flooding in late July through mid-August. China’s crop is lowered based mostly on early rice crop production data released by the government of China. Egypt’s rice crop is lowered due to prolonged excessive heat during the growing season. Indonesia’s crop is lowered due to a downward adjustment in expected yield. The Philippines crop is lowered due to a decrease in area and expected yield. Global beginning stocks are raised 1.8 million tons, due mostly to an increase in India. India’s 2014/15 rice crop is raised 2.3 million tons based on data released by the government of India. India’s exports for 2015/16 are raised 0.5 million tons to 9.0 million, partially offset by a reduction of 0.4 million for Burma to 1.8 million. Global 2015/16 rice consumption is lowered slightly from last month. Global 2015/16 ending stocks are projected at 90.2 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month, and a decline of 11.7 million from the previous year. Ending stocks are lowered for Burma, China, Egypt, Indonesia, and the Philippines; and raised for India and Vietnam.