WASDE: Soybean Ending Stocks Hold Steady at 465 Million Bushels

December 9, 2015 11:03 AM
WASDE: Soybean Ending Stocks Hold Steady at 465 Million Bushels

OILSEEDS:    Total U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is forecast at 117.7 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed.  Soybean supply and use projections for 2015/16 are unchanged from last month.  Soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 465 million bushels which, if realized, would be the highest since 2006/07.  Soybean oil used for methyl ester is raised 200 million pounds for 2015/16 reflecting the recent Environmental Protection Agency announcement of the biodiesel mandate for 2016.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 is forecast at $8.15 to $9.65 per bushel, unchanged from last month.  Soybean meal is forecast at $290 to $330 per short ton, down 10 dollars on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil is forecast at 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 529.0 million tons, down 2.0 million tons with foreign oilseeds accounting for most of the change.  Global soybean production is projected at 320.1 million tons, down 0.9 million.  The India soybean crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 8.0 million on lower yields resulting from inconsistent rainfall during the growing season and late-season heat.  Larger projections for Canada, Russia, and Ukraine partly offset the reduction for India.  Global rapeseed production is projected at 67.5 million tons, up 0.5 million with a larger crop in Canada only partly offset by a lower forecast for India.  Canada rapeseed production is raised 1.7 million tons to 17.2 million based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada.  The India crop is reduced on lower projected area, reflecting planting progress to date.  Palm oil production is reduced for Indonesia and Malaysia for 2015/16 reflecting unusually dry conditions from June through October 2015.  The Indonesia crop is reduced 2.0 million tons to 33.0 million and the Malaysia crop is reduced 0.5 million tons to 20.5 million.  Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for China and Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 147.7 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month.  Soybean exports account for most of the change with higher projections for Argentina, Serbia, and Ukraine.  Soybean imports are raised for Pakistan, Taiwan, and Iran.  Rapeseed exports are also higher with an increase for Canada only partly offset by a lower projection for Australia.  Global oilseed crush is projected lower primarily on reduced rapeseed and soybean crush for India.  For Pakistan, increased soybean crush partly offsets lower rapeseed and cottonseed crush.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 95.1 million tons, up 1.0 million mainly reflecting increased rapeseed stocks in Canada.  Global vegetable oil stocks are projected at 16.1 million tons, down 2.3 million mainly on lower palm oil stocks in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India.


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