WASDE: Soybean Ending Stocks Slide to 410 Million Bushels

December 10, 2014 11:19 AM
WASDE: Soybean Ending Stocks Slide to 410 Million Bushels

OILSEEDS:  Total U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed.  Soybean exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest.  With crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from last month but still the highest since 2006/07.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2014/15 is projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month.  The soybean meal price is projected at $340 to $380 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range.  The soybean oil price range is projected at 32 to 36 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends reflecting lower-than-expected early season vegetable oil prices and lower petroleum prices.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month.  Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change on increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed.  Global soybean production is projected at a record 312.8 million tons with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine, and Paraguay.  Global rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased production for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada.  Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for EU and reduced peanut production for Argentina.  Palm oil production is reduced for Indonesia for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 on revised yields.

Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.3 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month.  Soybean exports account for most of the change with higher projections for the United States, Paraguay, Ukraine, and Canada only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Brazil.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels.  Increased rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower soybean stocks in the United States.


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