WASDE: Soybean Production Estimated at 3.935 Billion Bushels

September 11, 2015 11:03 AM
WASDE: Soybean Production Estimated at 3.935 Billion Bushels

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 116.1 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month on increased soybean, cottonseed, and peanut production.  Soybean production is forecast at 3,935 million bushels, up 19 million due to a higher yield forecast.  Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,870 million on increased domestic disappearance of soybean meal, which is raised in line with an increase for 2014/15.  With lower beginning stocks and higher use, soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, down 20 million.

Changes for 2014/15 include higher exports and crush, resulting in reduced ending stocks.  Exports are increased 10 million to a record 1,835 million bushels based on reported trade through July and indications from August export inspections.  Crush is increased 25 million bushels to 1,870 million on increased soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports.  Ending stocks are projected at 210 million bushels, down 30 million.

The 2015/16 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.40 to $9.90 per bushel, unchanged from last month.  Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 527.2 million tons, down 1.9 million from last month.  Soybean production is reduced for Ukraine, where dry conditions in August lowered yield expectations.  Soybean production is also reduced for Canada with lower yields more than offsetting increased harvested area as reported by Statistics Canada.  Sunflowerseed production forecasts are lowered for several countries including China, the EU, Moldova, and India.  Global rapeseed production is raised slightly with gains for Canada and the EU mostly offset by reductions for India and Turkey.  Other changes include reduced peanut production for India and reduced cottonseed production for Brazil.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is reduced 1.0 million tons to 143.8 million, mainly reflecting reduced soybean exports for Ukraine.  Global oilseed crush is projected lower on reduced oilseed supplies.  Global oilseed stocks are projected lower mainly on lower soybean stocks in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Ukraine, and the United States.


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