WASDE: Soybean Production Lowered to 3.89 Million Bushels

October 9, 2015 11:03 AM
WASDE: Soybean Production Lowered to 3.89 Million Bushels

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 115.3 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month.  Soybean production is forecast at 3,888 million bushels, down 47 million with higher yields only partly offsetting reduced harvested area.  The soybean yield is forecast at 47.2 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from the September forecast.  Harvested area is reduced 1.1 million acres to 82.4 million.  Soybean supplies for 2015/16 are projected 66 million bushels below last month with lower beginning stocks and production.  Sunflowerseed and canola production are forcast higher on higher yields and harvested area.

U.S. soybean exports for 2015/16 are reduced 50 million bushels to 1,675 million on the slow pace of sales and increased competitor supplies.  Soybean crush is projected at 1,880 million, up 10 million on higher domestic soybean meal disappearance, which is raised in line with an increase for 2014/15.  Soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 425 million bushels, down 25 million.  The soybean price is projected at $8.40 to $9.90, unchanged from last month.  Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections are also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton and 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, respectively.

Soybean balance sheet changes for 2014/15 include lower planted and harvested area, lower yield, production, and ending stocks from the September 30 Grain Stocks report.  Exports are increased based on final trade data for the marketing year.  Soybean crush is raised based on data from the October 1 Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report published by NASS.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.0 million tons, up 3.9 million from last month on higher soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and peanut production.  Global soybean production is projected at a record 320.5 million tons, up 0.9 million with higher Brazil production only partly offset by lower projections for the United States, India, and Ukraine.  Brazil soybean production is projected at a record 100.0 million tons on higher area.  A sharp decline in the value of the Brazilian real recent months is expected to lead to increased area despite lower international soybean prices this year.  Soybean crops in Ukraine and India are reduced on lower projected yields.  Rapeseed production for Canada is projected at 14.3 million tons, up 1.0 million based on higher yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada.  Global sunflowerseed production is raised on higher estimates for Argentina and Ukraine.  Global cottonseed production is projected lower with reductions for China and Pakistan only partly offset an increase for Brazil.

Global oilseed stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.4 million mainly on higher rapeseed stocks in Canada and China, and higher sunflowerseed stocks in Argentina and Ukraine.  Global soybean stocks are raised marginally as higher stocks for Brazil are only partly offset by reductions for the United States, Argentina, and India.

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