OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supplies are increased 10 million bushels to 4,086 million on higher projected imports. Soybean exports for 2014/15 are projected at 1,790 million bushels, up 20 million reflecting the record pace of shipments through January. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1,795 million on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance, which is raised in line with projected gains in meat production. Soybean oil production gains from additional crush are mostly offset with a lower extraction rate. With increased production and reduced exports, soybean oil ending stocks are projected at 1.505 billion pounds, up 75 million. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 385 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
The 2014/15 season-average soybean price range projection is unchanged at $9.45 to $10.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $350 to $390 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 30 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.1 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global soybean production is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 315.1 million. Prospects for the Argentina soybean crop have improved with ample moisture and mild temperatures. As a result, the crop is projected at a record 56.0 million tons, up 1.0 million. Soybean production is also raised for China, Russia, and Ukraine. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 94.5 million tons, down 1.0 million on lower yields reflecting the impact of limited rainfall in eastern growing areas. Sunflowerseed changes this month include reduced production for Russia and India with a partly offsetting increase for Ukraine. India rapeseed production is projected at 6.9 million tons, down 650 thousand tons on lower area. Other changes include reduced peanut production for India, increased peanut production for Argentina, and increased cottonseed production for Pakistan. Palm oil production is reduced for Malaysia as a result of recent flooding.
Global soybean and product supply and use changes this month include increased crush and product exports for Argentina, Bolivia, and Russia; increased soybean imports for Russia and the United States; and reduced soybean meal exports for India. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower, mostly reflecting reduced soybean stocks for Brazil and the United States and reduced rapeseed stocks for Canada and India.