WASDE: Soybean Yield Lowered, but Still a Record

January 12, 2016 11:03 AM
WASDE: Soybean Yield Lowered, but Still a Record

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is estimated at 116.2 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month.  Smaller crops for soybeans, canola, and cottonseed are only partly offset by increases for sunflowerseed and peanuts.  Soybean production is estimated at 3,930 million bushels, down 51 million on lower harvested area and yields.  Harvested area is estimated at 81.8 million acres, down 0.6 million from the previous forecast.  Yield is estimated at 48.0 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels, but still a record.  With lower supplies, exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 1,690 million.  Ending stocks are projected at 440 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.  Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean meal production is reduced on a lower extraction rate.  Soybean meal exports are reduced on a slowing pace of sales and increased competition from Argentina.  Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher extraction rate, increased imports, and increased domestic use.

The 2015/16 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is projected at $8.05 to $9.55 per bushel, down 10 cents at the midpoint based on prices reported to date.  Soybean meal is forecast at $270 to $310 per short ton, down 20 dollars on both ends.  The soybean oil forecast is unchanged at 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound. 

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 526.9 million tons, down 2.0 million with lower forecasts for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed.  Global soybean production is projected at 319.0 million tons, down 1.1 million on smaller crops in the United States and South Africa.  Larger soybean production in China is partly offsetting.  Global sunflowerseed production is reduced with lower projections for Argentina and South Africa partly offset by an increase for Russia.  Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for China, India, and Pakistan.

Global oilseed trade for 2015/16 is projected at 148.0 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month.  Increased soybean exports for Argentina and increased soybean and rapeseed exports for Canada more than offset lower U.S. soybean exports.  Global oilseed crush is projected higher mainly on increased soybean crush for Argentina, China, and Vietnam and increased rapeseed crush for Canada and China.  Global oilseed stocks are projected at 90.9 million tons, down 4.2 million on reduced soybean stocks for the United States, Argentina, and China, and reduced rapeseed stocks for Canada.




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