WASDE: Soybean Yield Unchanged at 46 Bushels, Production Raised to 3.885 Billion Bushels

16:03PM Jul 10, 2015

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 115.1 million tons, up 1.0 million tons mainly on higher soybean production.  Soybean production is projected at 3,885 million bushels, up 35 million due to increased harvested area.  Harvested area, forecast at 84.4 million acres in the Acreage report, is 0.7 million above the June forecast.  The soybean yield is projected at 46.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month.  Despite increased production, soybean supplies are reduced 40 million bushels on account of lower beginning stocks.  Soybean crush is projected at 1,840 million bushels, up 10 million reflecting increased domestic soybean meal disappearance in line with adjustments for 2014/15.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 425 million bushels, down 50 million.

U.S. soybean crush for 2014/15 is raised 15 million bushels to 1,830 million on increased domestic soybean meal use.  Soybean exports are projected at 1,825 million bushels, up 15 million reflecting shipments and outstanding sales through early July.  Seed and residual use are each raised based on indications from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, respectively.  Soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 255 million bushels, down 75 million from last month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2015/16 is projected at $8.50 to $10.00 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $315 to $355 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends.  The soybean oil price projection is unchanged at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 531.8 million tons, down fractionally from last month.  Global soybean production is projected at 318.9 million tons, up 1.3 million mostly due to higher production in the United States and Bolivia.  U.S. peanut production is raised 0.2 million tons on higher harvested area as reported in the Acreage report.  Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada with lower yields more than offsetting increased planted area reported by Statistics Canada.  Rapeseed and sunflowerseed production are also reduced for EU on lower yields resulting from dry weather and above average temperatures that persisted through early July.  Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for China and Russia, and reduced soybean production for Turkey.  Global oilseed ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 102.2 million tons, down 2.4 million mostly reflecting lower soybean stocks in the United States and reduced rapeseed stocks in Australia, Canada, and EU.  South America soybean stock changes are mostly offsetting.