WASDE: Total Meat Production Raised

July 10, 2015 11:10 AM
 
WASDE: Total Meat Production Raised

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecasts for total meat production for 2015 and 2016 are raised from last month.  Beef production for 2015 is lowered as fed cattle slaughter in the second quarter is reduced.  In addition, relatively good forage conditions and higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of placements until later in 2015, reducing available supplies of fed cattle for slaughter in late 2015.  However, these large placements will lead to higher marketings and slaughter in 2016 and the beef production forecast is raised.  The pork production forecast for 2015 is raised.  Pig crop data in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report supported a higher third-quarter 2015 slaughter forecast.  The 2016 forecast is raised slightly.  Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is raised based on hatchery data and continued increases in bird weights.  Turkey production is reduced for 2015 based on hatchery data.  Egg production for 2015 is reduced slightly as lower table egg production more than offsets an expected increase in hatching egg production.

Forecasts for beef imports for 2015 and 2016 are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; the export forecast is reduced slightly on trade data to date.  Pork imports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced and the export forecasts are raised.  Broiler exports for 2015 are raised on improved demand and large supplies; no change is made to 2016.  Turkey exports are reduced for 2015 as supplies are tight; no change is made to 2016.   

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on weaker demand and larger supplies of competing meats.  Hog prices are higher for 2015 and 2016 as both export and domestic demand has improved.  Broiler prices are slightly lower for 2015 on weaker June prices but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.  Turkey prices for 2015 and 2016 are raised on tighter supplies.  Egg prices for 2015 are raised on tight supplies and prices to date but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.

The milk production forecast for 2015 is raised on a slightly more rapid increase in cow numbers and milk per cow.  However, higher expected feed prices and weaker milk prices during late 2015 and 2016 are expected to temper the rate of growth in production and the 2016 production forecast is lowered.  Fat basis exports are reduced as competition in world markets is expected to be strong in both 2015 and 2016 and domestic butter demand is expected to absorb much of the available supply.  Skim-solids exports are raised from last month as weaker nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices allow the United States to remain competitive in export markets.  Fat basis and skim-solids imports are raised for both 2015 and 2016 on expectations of abundant global supplies of dairy products and continued strength in U.S. domestic demand for butter and cheese. 

Cheese and butter prices for 2015 are raised from last month on continued domestic demand strength, but NDM and whey prices are forecast lower as the supplies of those products are abundant and prices decline to maintain competitiveness in export markets.  For 2016, the cheese price is unchanged, but the butter price is raised on expectations of robust domestic demand.  NDM and whey prices are reduced as lower prices are expected to maintain export competitiveness. For 2015 and 2016 Class III prices are reduced on lower whey prices.  Class IV prices for both years are reduced on lower NDM prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $17.05 to $17.35 per cwt for 2015 and $17.00 to $18.00 per cwt for 2016.

 

 

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