WASDE: Total Rice Supplies Unchanged; Yield Drops by 72 lbs.

August 12, 2015 11:08 AM
WASDE: Total Rice Supplies Unchanged; Yield Drops by 72 lbs.

RICE:   U.S. 2015/16 total rice supplies are projected at 278.4 million cwt, nearly unchanged from last month.  Lower production more than offsets larger carryin stocks and imports.  The first survey-based forecast of the U.S. 2015/16 rice crop is 205.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from last month and 7 percent below the previous year.  Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,472 pounds per acre, down 72 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, and 1 percent below last year.  Area harvested is unchanged at 2.74 million acres.  Long-grain production is forecast at 149.0 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 56.0 million.  The all rice import projection is 25.5 million cwt, up 0.5 million from last month—with the increase in long-grain.

U.S. 2015/16 total rice use is projected at 236.0 million cwt, 4.0 million below last month, but 3 percent above the previous year.  Total domestic and residual use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 129.0 million due mostly to a smaller crop and a lower residual component.  Exports are forecast at 107.0 million cwt, down 3.0 million from last month, and 6 percent above last year.  The decrease is due to reduced supplies and strong competition with Southeast Asian exporters.  Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 74.0 million and 33.0 million, respectively.  U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 42.4 million cwt, up 4.0 million from last month, but 11 percent below the previous year.

The 2015/16 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $11.50 to $12.50 per cwt, up 60 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month.  Combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.80 to $18.80 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago.  The California and Other States medium- and short-grain prices are unchanged from a month ago at a midpoint of $21.00 per cwt and $14.80 per cwt, respectively.  The 2015/16 all rice price is projected at $13.40 to $14.40 per cwt, up 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range.

The projected decrease in global 2015/16 total use of rice is greater than the drop in total supply resulting in an increase in world ending stocks.  Global rice production is lowered 1.7 million tons to 478.7 million, still a record, due primarily to forecast reductions for Argentina, Cambodia, Iraq, South Korea, Thailand, and the United States.  Thailand’s 2015/16 rice crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 18.0 million, attributed mostly to an abnormally low rainfall in important growing areas, including the Central Region.  Planted area has been lowered by 3 percent due to restrictions on irrigation water availability imposed by the government of Thailand because of low reservoir levels.  Global beginning stocks for 2015/16 are increased 1.1 million tons due mostly to a 1.0-million-ton increase in Thailand.  Thailand’s 2014/15 exports are reduced by 1.0 million tons to 9.0 million due to the slow pace of sales.  World 2015/16 consumption is reduced 1.0 million tons to 487.8 million, still a record.  Consumption is lowered in Bangladesh, India, and the United States.  Global trade is lowered 0.4 million tons due mostly to a reduction in exports from Cambodia and the United States.  Global 2015/16 ending stocks are projected at 90.8 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month.

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