WASDE: U.S. All-Rice Yield Lowest Since 2011

October 9, 2015 11:08 AM
 
WASDE: U.S. All-Rice Yield Lowest Since 2011

RICE: U.S. all rice production in 2015/16 is forecast at 187.8 million cwt, down 1.7 million from last month with the decline entirely due to lower yield. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,307 pounds per acre, down 67 pounds from last month, and the lowest since 2011/12. Yields are lowered for California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas; increased for Missouri; and unchanged for Arkansas. All rice harvested area is unchanged at 2.57 million acres. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice production are both lowered from last month, with long-grain production projected at 130.3 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 57.5 million. The all rice import forecast is unchanged at 25.5 million cwt.  All rice domestic and residual use is unchanged at 125.0 million cwt.  All rice exports are unchanged at 97.0 million cwt with long-grain exports projected at 64.0 million and medium- and short-grain exports at 33 million.  All rice ending stocks are projected at 39.8 million cwt, down 1.7 million from last month with long-grain stocks at 21.8 million, and medium- and short-grain at 16.1 million.

The 2015/16 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.80 to $13.80 per cwt, unchanged from last month.  The medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.30 to $18.30 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  The California medium- and short-grain rice price at a midpoint of $21.00 per cwt is unchanged from last month.  The Other States medium- and short-grain rice price at a midpoint of $14.00 per cwt is lowered 50 cents per cwt.  The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.20 to $15.20 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago.

Projected global 2015/16 rice ending stocks are reduced on lower supplies. World ending stocks at 88.3 million tons are down 1.9 million from last month and the lowest since 2007/08.  Stocks have dropped 22.5 million tons or 20 percent since 2012/13.  The global stocks-to-use ratio at 18.1 percent is the smallest since 2006/07.  Global rice production is projected at 474.0 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month, primarily due to smaller crops forecast for India and Thailand.   Thailand’s crop is lowered 1.6 million tons, or 9 percent, due to drought and low irrigation supplies in the lower northern region and central plains, as both area harvested and yield are lowered.  India’s crop is lowered 0.5 million tons to 103.5 million due to a 2 percent drop in area harvested.  Global 2015/16 rice consumption is projected at a record 487.5 million tons, up slightly from a month ago. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are lowered for China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States, partially offset with an increase for Philippines.

 

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