WASDE: U.S. Cotton Crop Lowered to 13 Million Bales

December 9, 2015 11:03 AM
WASDE: U.S. Cotton Crop Lowered to 13 Million Bales

COTTON:  The U.S. cotton 2015/16 supply and demand forecasts include reduced production and exports this month; ending stocks are revised down marginally.  The U.S. crop is forecast at 13.0 million bales, down 250,000 from last month, due mainly to lower production in North and South Carolina.  Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are reduced 200,000 based on the lower available supply and lagging sales to date.  Ending stocks of 3.0 million bales account for 22 percent of total disappearance.  The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 56 to 62 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end, with the midpoint unchanged at 59 cents.

The world cotton 2015/16 projections show lower production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month.  Global production is reduced 1.9 million bales, as reductions for Pakistan, China, the United States, Turkey, Greece, and Turkmenistan are partially offset by an increase for Australia.  Total consumption is down slightly, reflecting reductions for China, India, and Pakistan, which are mostly offset by increases for Vietnam and Bangladesh.  Projected world trade is raised 1.0 million bales, reflecting larger expected imports for Pakistan, Vietnam, and Bangladesh, but lower imports for China.  Exports are raised for India, Brazil, and Australia, but are reduced for the United States.  World ending stocks are now projected 1.7 million bales below last month at 104.4 million.

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