WASDE: U.S. Rice Production Could Rise to Highest Level Since 2010/2011

May 10, 2016 11:08 AM

U.S. 2016/17 all rice production is forecast at 231.0 million cwt, up 38.7 million cwt from the previous year and the largest since 2010/11. The increase reflects larger area and a higher yield. Long grain harvested area is forecast at 2.4 million acres, up 32 percent from the previous year and the largest in six years. Combined medium- and short-grain harvested area is forecast at 0.6 million acres, down 17 percent from 2015/16 due to a sharp reduction in southern medium-grain planted area. The yield increase for both classes of rice reflects a return to trend. Total U.S. 2016/17 all rice supplies are forecast to increase 13 percent from the previous year. Long grain supplies are up, while medium- and short-grain supplies are down.

U.S. 2016/17 total use is projected at 248.0 million cwt, up 12 percent from the previous year with both domestic and residual use and exports projected higher. Long-grain exports for 2016/17 are forecast at 81.0 million cwt, up 12 million from the previous year and the largest in more than a decade. Combined medium- and short-grain exports are forecast at 32.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from 2015/16. Despite increased domestic use and exports, 2016/17 all rice ending stocks are forecast to rise 7.0 million cwt to 50.4 million. Long-grain stocks are forecast at 38.0 million cwt, up 15.5 million cwt from the previous year and the largest since 1985/86. Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are forecast down 8.5 million cwt to 10.5 million. The 2016/17 all rice season-average price is forecast at $11.30 to $12.30 per cwt; down $0.60 at the midpoint the previous year. 

Global 2016/17 rice production is forecast at a record 480.7 million tons and total supply at 587.1 million tons, up 2.3 million from the previous year. Total global rice consumption is forecast at 480.5 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from the previous year’s revised level and a record. Reductions in historical domestic use estimates are made for several countries, most importantly for China and Thailand, that led to lower global domestic use and increased ending stocks. World exports are forecast at 40.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons from 2015/16 and the second consecutive decline. Thailand and India show the largest year-over-year export reductions. Global ending stocks of 106.7 million tons are up fractionally from 2015/16. 

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