OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 112.9 million tons, down 3.1 million from 2015/16 mainly on lower soybean production. Production forecasts are also lower for sunflower seed, canola, and peanuts, but higher for cottonseed. Soybean production is projected at 3,800 million bushels, down 129 million from the 2015 crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. Supplies are projected at 4,230 million bushels, up 1.9 percent from 2015/16 with higher beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2016/17 is projected at 1,915 million bushels, up 35 million from 2015/16. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is projected to increase with expected gains in U.S. meat production. With limited gains for competing exporters, U.S. soybean meal exports are projected at 12.0 million short tons, up 0.5 million from 2015/16. Soybean exports are forecast at 1,885 million bushels, up 145 million from the revised 2015/16 projection. Sharply reduced stocks in South America this fall will limit competition during the first half of the marketing year. In addition, limited soybean production gains are projected for the 2016/17 South American harvest in early 2017. With forecasted global soybean import growth of 3.8 percent, the U.S. soybean export share is projected at 37 percent, up slightly from 2015/16 and near the 5-year average. U.S. ending stocks for 2016/17 are forecast at 305 million bushels, down 95 million from the revised 2015/16 projection. The 2016/17 U.S. season-average soybean price range is forecast at $8.35 to $9.85 per bushel compared with $8.85 per bushel in 2015/16. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $300 to $340 per short ton, compared with $310 per ton for 2015/16. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 30.5 to 33.5 cents per pound compared with 30.0 cents for 2015/16.
Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 533.8 million tons, up 2.1 percent from 2015/16. Global soybean production is projected at 324.2 million tons, up 8.3 million with gains for India, Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina, partly offset by lower U.S. production. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 103.0 million tons, up 4.0 million on higher area and yields. China soybean production is projected higher on increased harvested area as policy changes reduce incentives to plant corn. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 57.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from the revised 2015/16 crop. The 2015/16 crop is projected at 56.5 million tons, down 2.5 million mainly on lower area resulting from flooding in April. Total global oilseed supplies are up less than 1 percent from 2015/16. With crush projected to increase 2.3 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 76.9 million tons, down 9.5 percent from 2015/16.
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.2 percent in 2016/17. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.7 percent in China which accounts for 32 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 138.3 million tons, up 4.3 percent from 2015/16. China soybean imports are projected at 87.0 million tons, up 4.0 million from 2015/16. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected at 183.8 million tons, up 3.0 percent in 2016/17 led by increases for India, China, and Indonesia. Global vegetable oil ending stocks are projected at 16.9 million tons, down 7.9 percent from 2015/16.