OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 450 million bushels, up 10 million from last month due to a lower crush. Soybean production, trade, and other uses remain unchanged. Crush is reduced 10 million bushels to 1,880 million reflecting a lower soybean meal export forecast. Meal exports are reduced on sluggish shipments and sales as well as greater expected competition from Argentina where larger projected soybean supplies boost soybean meal exports. Lower U.S. soybean meal exports are partly offset by increased domestic soybean meal use which is raised to reflect relatively strong October-December disappearance. Soybean oil stocks are projected lower as reduced production more than offsets larger imports and a higher extraction rate. Soybean oil imports are raised on large shipments from Canada.
The 2015/16 season-average soybean price range projection is unchanged at $8.05 to $9.55 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil price projections are also unchanged at $270 to $310 per short ton and 28.5 to 31.5 cents per pound, respectively.
Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 527.4 million tons, up slightly from last month as an increase in soybean production more than offsets lower forecasts for peanuts and sunflowerseed. Soybean production in Argentina is projected up 1.5 million tons to 58.5 million on a higher yield projection. The revised yield forecast is in line with an adjustment to last year’s yield and is also supported by beneficial rain that has improved crop prospects. Peanut production in India is reduced this month on lower area. Global sunflowerseed production is projected lower as a decrease for Russia more than offsets higher production in Ukraine.
USDA: Global Grain Supply Forecasts Up
Global 2015/16 soybean and product supply and use changes include increased soybean crush for Argentina and Canada, increased soybean meal and oil exports for Argentina, increased soybean oil exports for Canada, and reduced soybean meal exports for India. In addition to the United States, higher soybean meal disappearance is projected for India where soybean meal substitutes for lower peanut meal disappearance. Soybean meal disappearance is also raised for Canada. Global oilseed stocks are projected at 91.2 million tons, up 0.3 million. Higher soybean stocks in Argentina, the United States, and Turkey, more than offset lower rapeseed stocks in the EU and Canada.