WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised this month on both increased beginning stocks and larger winter wheat production. Beginning stocks are higher with a 5-million-bushel reduction in 2014/15 exports partly offset by a 2-million-bushel reduction in imports. Projected production for 2015/16 is up 34 million bushels mainly on improved prospects for the Hard Red Winter wheat crop in the Central Plains following the late season rains. However, early harvest reports indicate that some areas receiving excessive rainfall have lodging and increased disease pressure. Feed use for 2015/16 is raised 15 million bushels to 195 million, and ending stocks increased 21 million bushels to 814 million. These would be the largest ending stocks since the 2010/11. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.10 per bushel on both ends to $4.40 to $5.40.
Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.1 million tons as a 2.6-million-ton increase in production is partly offset by a 0.6-million-ton reduction in beginning stocks. Production is raised 1.5 million tons for Russia and 1.0 million tons for Ukraine on improved spring rains following last autumn’s drought. The EU crop is raised 0.4 million tons on good growing conditions in United Kingdom and France. Partially offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction in Argentina, and 0.3-million-ton reductions each for Algeria and Tunisia. Beginning stocks are reduced 0.7 million tons each for Iran, Russia, and Syria on trade changes for the 2014/15 crop year. The largest beginning stocks increase is 0.5 million tons for Argentina on lower 2014/15 exports. Beginning stocks for 2015/16 are raised 0.2 million tons each for Bangladesh, EU, Morocco, Philippines, and Thailand.
Global wheat trade and consumption for 2015/16 are raised with larger foreign supplies. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons for EU on large supplies in Ukraine, and 0.3 million tons for Algeria on a smaller crop. Imports are raised 0.2 million tons each for Egypt, Tunisia, Thailand, and Yemen. World wheat exports are raised 1.5 million tons with Russia and Ukraine each raised 1.0 million tons on larger crops. Partially offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina. Foreign consumption is raised 2.6 million tons with almost all of it on higher feeding. Feeding is raised 1.0 million tons in EU, 0.5 million tons in Russia, and 0.4 million tons in Thailand. At 202.4 million tons, global stocks are down 0.9 million tons from last month but still the largest since 2009/10.