WHEAT: Projected U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are lowered 14 million bushels as decreased production more than offsets a decline in total use. Production for 2015/16 is lowered 84 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the NASS September 30 Small Grains 2015 Summary. Feed and residual use is lowered 20 million bushels reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated lower-than-expected June-August disappearance. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 850 million on a slow sales pace to date and continued lack of U.S. price competitiveness, particularly compared to Black Sea Countries and EU. The projected range for the 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.75 to $5.25 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 2.0 million tons, on both increased production and beginning stocks. The biggest production increases are 1.0 million tons each for Australia and Canada, and 1.1 million tons for EU. The Canada and EU increases are based on government reports and harvest progress. Australia had sufficient sub-soil moisture that allowed it to withstand a drier-than-normal September; increased yield potential is supported by satellite imagery. The United States had the largest production decline. The global wheat crop is now projected at 732.8 million tons, the third consecutive record.
World wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 3.0 million tons with increases for several key U.S. competitors. Ukraine is raised 1.5 million tons on a larger crop. Canada exports are raised 1.0 million tons, and Australia, the EU, Kazakhstan, and Russia are each raised 0.5 million tons. These increases are based on larger supplies and export pace to date. Partly offsetting is a 1.4 million ton reduction for the United States and a 0.5 million ton decline for Argentina. Imports are raised 1.0 million tons in Iran on the elimination of an import duty and 0.5 million tons in Syria because of distribution problems. Total world usage is up fractionally, and ending stocks are raised 1.9 million tons to a record 228.5 million tons.