WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 7 million bushels lower with reduced imports and higher domestic use mostly offset by lower exports. Imports are projected 15 million bushels lower (mostly durum) based on available shipment data. Feed and residual use is projected 10 million bushels higher on disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by March 1 stocks and revisions to December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. The all wheat export projection is lowered 20 million bushels on continued strong competition in global markets. This would be the lowest export total since 2009/10. The projected season-average farm price range for all wheat is raised 10 cents on the low end to $6.00 to $6.10 per bushel.
Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 0.8 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. The largest production increase is for EU, up 0.8 million tons for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 on revised country data. The Pakistan crop for 2014/15 is also raised 0.5 million tons. Global beginning stocks are lowered 0.9 million tons mostly on an EU increase in wheat feeding for 2013/14.
World wheat imports for 2014/15 are raised 1.5 million tons mostly on the addition of six African countries (Benin, Malawi, Mali, Namibia, Rwanda, and Uganda) to the official USDA wheat database this month. Global exports are also raised 1.5 million tons with EU having by far the biggest increase. EU exports are raised 2 million tons to a record 33.5 million on the continued fast pace of export licenses and the competitiveness of EU supplies to key markets in the Middle East and North Africa. Canada and Russia are each raised 0.5 million tons. Canada is raised on a strong pace to date and Russia on expectations that small shipments will continue despite export taxes. Argentina is lowered 1 million tons on the slow pace of export licenses.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 1.3 million tons largely on the addition of the six African countries. Global wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 0.5 million tons with large decreases for Canada, EU, and Russia and large increases for Pakistan and Argentina.