WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 5 million bushels higher as reduced exports more than offset an import reduction. Projected imports are lowered 20 million bushels to 160 million on pace to date. Projected exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 900 million on increased competition from EU and the recent strengthening of the dollar, which makes U.S. exports less competitive. Ending stocks are increased to 692 million bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents on the low end and 15 cents on the high end to $5.85 to $6.15 per bushel. The reduction reflects prices received to date as well as a loss of competitiveness for U.S. wheat.
Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised 3.3 million tons with both increased production and beginning stocks. World wheat production remains record high and is raised 1.7 million tons led by 0.5-million-ton increases for both Argentina and Kazakhstan. The Argentina change reflects harvest reports to date; Kazakhstan’s increase is from updated government statistics. Turkey is raised 0.3 million tons based on a multi-year review of production. Ukraine is raised 0.3 million tons on updated government statistics. Beginning stocks are raised 1.7 million tons mostly on back-year revisions to the Turkey production.
Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is raised with exports up 0.9 million tons on larger supplies and stronger demand. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for EU and 0.5 million tons each for Argentina and Brazil. The EU increase stems from a fast sales pace and competitive prices. Argentina is raised on the larger crop, and Brazil is up on pace of shipments to date. A 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia is partly offsetting. Egypt imports are raised 0.5 million tons; Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and Sri Lanka are each raised 0.2 million tons. Partly offsetting are 0.3-million-ton reductions each for Bangladesh, Brazil, and Turkey. All the import changes reflect the pace of trade to date.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is up 1.5 million tons on both higher food and feed use. The largest increases for food use are for Egypt and Russia, up 0.5 million tons each. Turkey feed use is up 0.4 million tons. Partly offsetting are 0.5-million-ton and 0.3-million-ton reductions, respectively for Canada and Brazil feed use. Ending stocks are up 1.9 million tons, mostly with a 1.3-million-ton increase for Turkey on back-year revisions to production.