WASDE: Wheat Exports Rise, But Ending Stocks Remain Large

July 12, 2016 11:07 AM

WHEAT: Projected U.S. supplies for 2016/17 are raised 180 million bushels this month on increased production and slightly higher beginning stocks.  A 5-million-bushel decrease in imports is minimally offsetting.  Production is raised throughout the wheat belt.  Winter wheat yields are projected to be record high, and spring wheat yields are slightly above average.  Feed and residual use for 2016/17 is raised 100 million bushels to 300 million on the larger supplies and increased wheat price competitiveness with corn.  U.S. exports are raised 25 million bushels to 925 million, which would be the highest in 3 years.  Ending stocks are raised 55 million bushels to 1,105 million bushels, the highest since 1988/89.  With the large increase in carryover stocks, the season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per bushel at the midpoint to a projected range of $3.40 to $4.20.

Global 2016/17 wheat supplies are raised 9.2 million tons to 983.0 million on increased production as well as a 1.5-million-ton increase in beginning stocks.  Foreign production is raised 2.7 million tons led by 1.0-million-ton increases for both Russia and Ukraine on favorable weather.  Production for Argentina, Australia, and Canada are each raised 0.5 million tons.  These increases are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton decrease for the EU on heavy rain in France and a 0.7-million-ton decrease for Algeria on a worse-than-expected impact from drought.  Total world production is now projected at a record 738.5 million tons.  

Global use for 2016/17 is raised 13.3 million tons to 729.3 million, primarily on increased feed use, stemming from the large world supplies and heavy late-season rain in several production regions.  Feed use in China and the EU are raised 5.5 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively.  Global food and industrial use is raised 1.7 million tons, led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for China.  Global 2016/17 exports are raised 2.8 million tons on increased supplies and strong demand in several countries.  Foreign export increases are led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Ukraine, and 0.5 million tons each for Argentina, Australia, Canada, Russia, and Turkey.  The increases are partly offset by a 1.5-million-ton reduction for EU exports on a smaller crop and increased domestic feed use.  With total use rising faster than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 4.1 million tons to 253.7 million, but remain record large.  



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