WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are projected up 6 percent from 2014/15 on higher beginning stocks and production. All wheat production is projected at 2,087 million bushels, up 3 percent. The all wheat yield is projected at 43.5 bushels per acre, down slightly from the previous year. The survey-based forecast for 2015/16 all winter wheat production is up 7 percent with both higher yields and harvested area. A decline in Soft Red Winter wheat harvested area is more than offset by increased Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat harvested area. This year’s HRW yield is above last year’s low level, but drought and winterkill have adversely affected the crop again. White Winter wheat production is projected up 10 percent from last year mainly on higher yields. Spring wheat production for 2015/16 is projected to decline 5 percent on an assumed return to trend yields from last year’s near-record level, more than offsetting a slight increase in harvested area.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2015/16 is projected up 4 percent from the previous year on higher exports, feed and residual use, and food use. The 2015/16 exports are projected at 925 million bushels, up 65 million bushels from the previous year’s low level but still below the 5 year-average. Large supplies in several major competing countries will continue to limit U.S. exports. Feed and residual use is projected up 20 million bushels on increased supplies. U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise 84 million bushels to 793 million, the highest since the 2010/11 crop year. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $4.50 to $5.50 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies are projected to rise fractionally from 2014/15 as increased beginning stocks more than offset a slight decline in production from the previous year’s record. Total wheat production is projected at 718.9 million tons, the second highest total on record. Foreign production is down 9.2 million tons with reductions for EU, India, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting increases for China, Turkey, Morocco, Australia, Iran, and Syria. Global wheat consumption for 2015/16 is projected slightly higher than in 2014/15 with higher food use more than offsetting a reduction in world wheat feeding. Global import demand for 2015/16 is lower with the largest reductions coming from Turkey, Iran, Morocco, and Syria all on greatly improved crop prospects. Exports are lower for Canada, India, EU, Russia, and Ukraine, but higher for Argentina and Australia. Global ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 203.3 million tons, up 2.4 million from 2014/15.