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WASDE: World Soybean Production to Rise to 314.4 Million Tons

17:19PM Jan 12, 2015

OILSEEDS:   U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is estimated at 117.4 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month.  Larger crops for soybeans, peanuts, and cottonseed are partly offset by reductions for sunflowerseed and canola.  Soybean production is estimated at 3,969 million bushels, up 11 million bushels with lower harvested area more than offset with increased yields.  Harvested area is estimated at 83.1 million acres, down 0.3 million from the previous forecast.  The soybean yield is estimated at 47.8 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month.  Soybean exports are increased 10 million bushels to 1,770 million reflecting record exports during the first quarter of the marketing year.  Soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, unchanged from last month.  Soybean meal balance sheet changes include increased imports and domestic consumption.  Soybean oil balance sheet changes include reduced production on a lower extraction rate and lower domestic use for biodiesel.

The 2014/15 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $9.45 to $10.95 per bushel, up 20 cents at the midpoint based on prices reported to date.  The soybean oil price is forecast at 31 to 35 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.  The soybean meal price projection is unchanged at $340 to $380 per short ton.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.4 million tons, up 1.6 million on increases for soybeans, sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and peanuts.  Global soybean production is projected at 314.4 million tons, up 1.6 million on gains for Brazil and the United States.  The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.5 million tons to a record 95.5 million.  The increase is based on higher projected yields for major producing states including Mato Grosso and Parana.  Soybean production is reduced for India on lower yields reflecting late planting and a short monsoon season.  Several years of historical revisions are also made for India soybean production.  Other changes include increased soybean production for Bolivia, increased soybean and sunflowerseed production for EU, and reduced cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.7 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month.  Increased soybean exports for the United States and increased rapeseed export prospects for Canada account for most of the change.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 104.7 million tons, up 0.6 million on increased soybean stocks in Brazil which are partly offset by lower soybean stocks in EU and lower canola stocks in Canada.