COTTON: Revisions to the monthly forecasts of 2014/15 U.S. cotton beginning stocks, production, and exports result in lower ending stocks relative to last month’s estimate. Beginning stocks are adjusted based on reported stocks in public storage as of July 31, 2014, which are significantly less than the calculation of supply minus use for 2013/14. Production for the 2014 crop is reduced nearly 1.0 million bales, as USDA’s second crop survey of the season shows reductions mainly for Texas, Georgia, and Arkansas. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 700,000 bales on lower domestic supplies and reduced foreign import demand. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.2 million bales, equivalent to 38 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing-year average farm price of 58 to 70 cents per pound is lowered 2 cents on the upper end, with a midpoint of 64 cents.
This month’s world 2014/15 forecasts include a larger supply and lower offtake, resulting in an increase of 1.2 million bales in world ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised mainly in China and India, partially offset by decreases for several countries, including the United States. Production is raised for India, the African Franc Zone, and Turkey but is reduced for the United States, Argentina, and Uzbekistan. A reassessment of trade data for Pakistan points to lower consumption beginning in 2012/13 and accounts for most of this season’s decrease in global consumption from last month; however, world consumption is still expected to grow nearly 4 percent in 2014/15. In addition to lower imports for Pakistan, imports are reduced for India and Turkey, based on higher forecast production, but are raised for Vietnam. Exports are reduced mainly for the United States, Uzbekistan, and India.
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